Should I Buy Property Now or Wait for Prices to Fall?
Should I buy now or wait for prices to fall further?
It’s a fair question.
Nobody wants to buy a property only to watch its value fall six months later.
But there’s another side to the decision that doesn’t get talked about enough.
A cheaper property doesn’t automatically mean it will be easier for you to buy.
Your borrowing capacity, interest rate, deposit, repayments and personal plans all matter too.
So instead of trying to perfectly predict the bottom of the property market, here’s what I’d be looking at.
Are property prices actually falling?
Yes, (for now) across many parts of Australia.
Recent housing data shows property values have been declining across a large proportion of Australian suburbs.
But Australia isn’t one single property market.
Prices can behave very differently between cities, suburbs and types of property. Even within the same suburb, houses and apartments can perform differently.
So headlines saying “property prices are falling” don’t necessarily tell you what’s happening with the type of property you’re considering buying.
It’s worth looking at the market you’re actually planning to buy in rather than making your decision based on national headlines alone.
You can read more about falling property prices here.
If prices are falling, why wouldn’t I just wait?
You absolutely can.
For some people, waiting will be the right decision.
Maybe you need more time to save.
Maybe your borrowing capacity isn’t where you need it to be.
Maybe buying right now would leave you with very little money left over.
Or maybe you’re simply not ready.
But if you’re waiting purely because you’re hoping to perfectly time the bottom of the market, i'm sorry, but that's just not going to happen.
Nobody knows exactly when property prices will stop falling or when they’ll start rising again.
And by the time it’s obvious that a market has turned, conditions may have already changed.
A cheaper property isn’t always a more affordable property
This is the part I think buyers need to pay attention to.
Let’s say a property you’re interested in falls from $800,000 to $760,000.
Great. You’ve potentially saved $40,000 on the purchase price.
But what has happened to your borrowing capacity during that time?
What interest rate could you get?
What would your repayments look like?
Have lending conditions changed?
If higher interest rates mean you can borrow less than you could six months ago, the lower property price doesn’t automatically put you in a better position.
This is why I wouldn’t look at property prices in isolation.
Start with your own numbers
Before trying to work out where the property market will be in six months, I’d work out where you are today.
How much deposit do you have?
How much could you realistically borrow?
What purchase price would that give you?
And importantly:
What repayment would you actually be comfortable with?
That last number matters.
There’s a difference between the maximum amount a lender may be willing to lend you and the amount you actually want to repay every month.
You may be able to borrow $800,000.
That doesn’t necessarily mean you should spend $800,000.
You still need money for everything else happening in your life.
Would getting pre-approved help?
If you’re genuinely considering buying in the near future, getting your finance position assessed can help you understand what’s realistic.
A pre-approval can give you an indication of how much a lender may be prepared to lend based on your current financial position.
It can help turn:
“Maybe I could buy?”
into something much more useful:
“This is approximately what I could spend, and this is what the repayments could look like.”
It’s important to remember that pre-approval isn’t a guarantee of final loan approval. Your circumstances still need to meet the lender’s requirements when you eventually buy, and the property itself may also need to be assessed.
But understanding your position can make it much easier to decide whether you want to buy now or keep waiting.
Could falling prices actually help some buyers?
Potentially.
A slower market can sometimes mean buyers have more choice, less competition and more room to negotiate.
That doesn’t mean every seller will suddenly accept a huge discount.
But buying in a market where you have time to properly inspect a property, understand the numbers and negotiate can feel very different from buying when ten other people are trying to make an offer at the same time.
The important thing is not to buy just because prices have fallen.
A property still needs to make sense for your budget and what you’re trying to achieve.
What if prices fall after I buy?
They might.
That’s something every property buyer needs to be comfortable with.
Property values don’t move upwards in a straight line.
If you’re buying a property you plan to own for a longer period, what happens to its value next month or next year may be much less important than whether the purchase makes sense for you overall.
That doesn’t mean ignoring the price you pay.
You should still research the market, understand comparable sales and avoid stretching yourself simply because you’re worried about missing out.
But expecting to buy on the exact day the market reaches its lowest point isn’t a realistic strategy.
So, should you buy now or wait?
There’s no universal answer.
I’d be cautious of anyone confidently telling every buyer that “now is the perfect time to buy”.
I’d be equally cautious of someone telling you to wait because they’re certain prices will be cheaper six months from now.
Neither of them knows exactly what’s going to happen.
Instead, I’d ask:
Can I afford to buy now?
What could I comfortably borrow?
Would I still have some financial breathing room after buying?
Am I looking at properties that actually suit my budget?
Am I planning to hold the property long enough that short-term price movements aren’t driving the entire decision?
If those numbers don’t work, waiting may make complete sense.
If they do work, waiting purely because you’re trying to perfectly time the bottom of the market could mean making a major financial decision based on something none of us can reliably predict.
Before you decide, work out what buying now actually looks like
You don’t need to decide whether the entire Australian property market is about to go up or down.
You need to understand whether you are in a position to buy.
Before you start attending open homes every Saturday or decide to sit on the sidelines for another year, find out what your borrowing position looks like now.
That gives you something much more useful than another property forecast: actual numbers you can make a decision with.
If you’re thinking about buying your first home or investment property and aren’t sure whether now is the right time, I can help you understand your borrowing position, potential purchase budget and what the repayments could look like.
You can also take the first step by reviewing your potential borrowing capacity by clicking here.
Book a casual chat here <3
Eshanee Collins is a mortgage broker and founder of April Six , helping first-home buyers and property investors understand their finance options and make confident property decisions.